Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
